Karnataka assembly elections: All set for Modi-Rahul war

 

Bangalore, 30 Mar 2013 (TOI): It’s countdown time for the assembly elections. And it’s increasingly apparent that the title bout will be between NarendraModi and Rahul Gandhi. In Karnataka, a preliminary Swot analysis shows an edge for Congress after its thumping victory in the recent civic polls. As Rahul rides a wave and Modi banks on his charisma, the stage is set for a high-decibel battle between the two PM aspirants. Manu Aiyappa decodes their chances.

 

Can Modi xerox his Gujarat win here?

Narendra Modi’s charisma has worked thrice in a row in Gujarat. Reason why the Karnataka BJP is banking on him to boost its poll prospects after its one-time star campaigner and former CM B S Yeddyurappa parted ways.With the Gujarat victory cementing his stature in the party as a future prime ministerial candidate, the state unit hopes Modi can replicate his magic in Karnataka. There is a creeping realisation that an incremental, positive vote in favour of Modi will considerably cut down the anti-incumbency vote against the ruling party in Karnataka. State BJP president Prahalad Joshi doesn’t fully agree with this but says Modi’s leadership quality transcends caste and linguistic barriers. "He is currently the face of good governance and development in the country. This will definitely help our cause," he says.

 

The middle class support for BJP in the state is well known and can be attributed to the Hindutva ideology that the party propagates, reasons enough for Modi to flex his muscle in Karnataka. Also, Modi’s development mantra may strike a chord with the electorate.

 

For Modi, the PM candidate, this election will test whether he has a pan-India image that goes beyond Gujarat. In the 2009 Lok Sabha election, his magic failed to work in the state despite an extensive campaign. His inflammatory speeches at some election rallies in Hubli harmed the prospects of BJP candidates. Fearing it might upset the minority vote bank, leaders decided not to invite him in their future campaigns.

 

Time for Rahul’s big leap; Congress hopeful

The Karnataka poll will be Rahul Gandhi’s first real leadership test after his elevation as Congress vice-president. With the ruling BJP fighting antiincumbency and corruption charges and the civic poll results bolstering his party’s chances, there couldn’t be a more opportune time for Rahul to showcase his political skills and set the tone for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

 

"A positive verdict for the Congress will have a big bearing on Rahul’s leadership," admits a senior Congress leader. Yet with factionalism and oneupmanship bogging down the party, it may not be smooth sailing. Aides say the Gandhi scion is seriously working to wrest back Karnataka for the Congress. He has already brought in a new mechanism in the form of a special group to coordinate, campaign and monitor the state election.

 

By excluding 81-year-old veteran S M Krishna from the manifesto and election strategy committee, it indicates that Rahul’s mantra of infusing youth into party has worked. With many contenders for the CM’s chair and inner feud limiting the party’s prospects, insiders say Rahul may give election responsibility to one of the heavyweight leaders instead of projecting a CM candidate straightaway. While critics point to the unsuccessful Uttar Pradesh campaign, Rahul and his aides hope Karnataka will prove them wrong. May 8 should give the answer.