On election win euphoria in Mangalore South constituency

By Philip Mudartha
Bellevision Media Network

Mangalore, 28 May 2013: The election victory of INC candidate J. R. Lobo in Mangalore South Assembly Constituency has attracted wide media attention in twin districts of Udupi and Mangalore.

 

 

The elation of Congress party workers and supporters is understandable. After all, this constituency was former Congress bastion.  Congress consistently fielded a candidate belonging to Konkani speaking community, drawing either from Gaud Saraswat Brahmin (GSB) or Mangalorean Catholic Community (MCC). Of the twelve contests since the state reorganization in 1956, Congress won seven and conceded only five to BJP. BJP on its part continued the Congress tradition of fielding a Konkani Brahmin. The only exception was in 1983 when it chose a Jain in Venur Dhananjaya Kumar.

 

The demography of Mangalore South Constituency

 

Of 2.05 lakh registered voters, Billavas are largest group with 51 thousand voters. In second place are Christians with 42 thousand, followed closely by Others belonging to Backward Castes and SC/ST with 41 thousand. The Muslims, Bunts, and GSB number 31 thousand, 22 thousand and 18 thousand.  How many of these registered voters are permanent residents is not known since many of them are based elsewhere in India and in foreign countries. A large chunk of expatriates living and working in Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) region in Middle East belong to this constituency.  The share of MCC and Muslims is high among GCC expatriates. Actual numerical strength of registered voter from each community present and voting on that day is therefore is only guesswork.

 

The voting data of 2008 and 2013 elections

 

	INC	BJP	JDS	CPM	KJP	SDPI	Ind	Total
2008	51,373	60,133	-	4,089	-	-	3,427	119,022
% share	43.16	50.52	0	3.44	0	0	2.88	100.00
2013	67,829	55,554	1,672	3,016	657	1,672	1,915	132,315
% share	51.26	41.99	1.26	2.28	0.50	1.26	1.45	100.00
% swing	+8.10	-8.53	+1.26	-1.16	+0.50	+1.26	-1.43	0

 

Data Analysis and discussion

• It should be humiliating for a heavy-weight like Venur Dhananjaya Kumar, who has the honor of wresting this prized constituency from Congress for the first time in 1983. He succeeded to attract only 657 votes to KJP nominee. He has been a MP for DK Lok Sabha constituency on BJP ticket and a Cabinet Minister under Vajpayee as well state’s representative in Delhi until he was sacked for joining KJP to show his loyalty to BS Yeddyurappa.

 

 

• Thus KJP does not have any base and BS Yeddyurappa is not a factor at all in the saffron upsurge in coastal Karnataka as well as its hold on this constituency since two decades.

 

• Assuming KJP got votes which otherwise were loyal to BJP only, BJP suffered a downward swing of 8%. This is a substantial loss of loyalty for a party in a constituency which favors a straight contest between two strong parties and candidates.

 

• The combined share of BJP and Congress remains almost stable at 93.5%, which suggests that CPM, JDS and other small parties who are vying for the votes of factory labor and outsiders on short term residence, and of disgruntled minorities.

 

 

• The entry into electoral politics of SDPI, an ultra-conservative outfit floated by Muslims, and which believes in tit-for-tat counterforce against saffron brigade vigilantes, and is mainly Salafi influenced and financed, has not made any headway. They had tasted a morale-boosting maiden victory, by defeating Mayor Gulzar Banu, in the Mangalore City Corporation Election held a few months ago. Their professed aim was to defeat Muslim candidates in Mangalore North and Mangalore to achieve the strategic goal of weaning away Muslim vote bank of Congress in its entirety. Assuming 22 thousand Muslims voted in this constituency, it is likely that only 6% Muslims went with it who otherwise would have voted for Congress.

 

• How did Congress manage to swing 8% in its favor? Or more accurately, how did BJP manage to lose them? Who are these 10 thousand voters? Booth level and voter age specific data is required to draw any firm conclusions. Without it, a few theories can be floated.

 

More data analysis and speculative theories

 

• Of the 2.05 lakh registered voters, the voter turn-out was 64.56%; only 132, 315 actually voted. In 2008 elections, the voter turn-out was 64.14%. The increase is a disappointing 0.42%, when the state as a whole registered an impressive gain of about 6% in voter turn-out. The net gain due to higher voter turn-out is 556 votes, which most probably were divided between Congress and BJP in proportion to their vote share. It is impossible to claim that a ‘better’ candidacy from Congress Party pulled all of the extras to the booths.

 

 

• Due to the increase in voter population and registration, the actual voter size increased by 13,293. Let us assume that voters’ age is between 18 to 68 years, and each age group is equal and turn-out is equal. This leads me to say that 2646 voters of each year group voted and that the first time voters in 18-23 yr. age group (who were 13-18 yr. in 2008) number 13,231. So, the bulk of the extra voters belong to the new voters, the college goers among them and those who discontinued studies or failed in high school /senior secondary school exams during the past 5  or less years.

 

• The college goers, which are at least 60%, must afford the costs and hence I assume they come from middle class family backgrounds with conservative parents. Their main concern is stress-free, trouble-free and secure learning environment.  This segment is likely to vote for a Congress candidate, especially because the adverse publicity branding BJP as communal and fascist after Amnesia pub attack, Padil Homestay attack as well as various controversies on dress codes, mixed gender partying, traveling together and mingling. Impressionable as they are, they view these edicts as curtailing their individual liberties. They will even vote against the wishes of their parents, if they were to be asked to vote for BJP, getting sneak pleasure in their rebellion.

 

• The other 40% consisting of failures and stay-at-home kind who did not afford college costs or get an admission anywhere must find jobs in local businesses and services industries. This is the disadvantaged subaltern group. I have no real data or sample surveys. Going by gut feeling arising out of my travels through the constituency during the last five years, I say that this voter segment vibes with the saffron fringes and agrees with their efforts to preserve traditional culture. Their motto is if we cannot enjoy pleasures of life, the lucky ones should not too.

 

 

• I give 8 thousand plus of first time votes to Congress and remaining 5 thousand to BJP. Of the winning margin of 12,275 votes three thousand plus can be assigned to first time voters. The 9 thousand came from those who had voted for BJP in 2008. They got disillusioned by their performance. This number accounts for about 7% of previous electorate who were not necessarily loyal to either BJP or Congress. They do not have party affiliations. They can be wooed and won over by persuasive arguments in public by parties as well as private entreating by candidates’ door-to-door campaigning.

 

• The ability to swing undecided voters who do not profess loyalty to core ideologies of any one of two parties, are generally in the range of 8-10% in any constituency. A strong party candidate with an unsullied, clean and non-controversial image is an asset. A committed and charged party cadre at booth levels is a necessity. A very vigilante and impartial election machinery is a must. Congress party in fielding J R Lobo capitalized on these strengths in addition to earning dividends from the anti-BJP public sentiment. It succeeded in re-capturing the seat after a gap of twenty years. It also largely managed intra-party dissidence. The disenchantment with official candidates was not special to this constituency. In Mangalore North (Suratkal), a previous loser Muslim candidate was foisted on a predominately non-Muslim Billava-Bunt electorate to lock horns once again with the formidable BJP ex-minister.  The Bunts were not too pleased but were managed by the DCC supremo, a Bunt Gadfly.

 

• Both BJP and Congress can sleep well knowing that their core constituency of 42% each is intact. What does it mean? BJP has lost a battle. But, it has not lost its ideological war against its adversaries in this constituency.  They are alive and kicking, waiting to be provoked. We can expect fireworks and some smell of dry powder after the mourning period is over.

 

If good sense prevails, the winners shall be generous and humble in their victory. The wise will avoid politics of hatred and vendetta. There are wounds inflicted on minorities and constitutional wrongs committed by BJP and its affiliates for a decade during its upsurge. However, saffron goonda-giri shall not be substituted with green goonda-giri and white sarcasm/teasers. The Congress flag as well as that of nation is a judicious mix of saffron, white and green. It is a good practice to look at it each morning as our MLA and his euphoric supporters get down to work.

 

Philip Mudartha

[..FIRST rank holder of St. Lawrence High School. He not only inscribed his name on the hearts and minds of every Bellean and the neighboring villages, but through out the State of Karnataka as TOPPER of SSLC Board Examinations in the year 1969..]