The CNN-IBN-The Week post-poll surveys reveal surprising trends

CNN-IBN

 

May 11, 2011: The post-poll survey of the CNN-IBN-The Week conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) reveal surprising trends. According to this survey, Mamata Bannerjee in West Bengal will register a landslide victory, thus ending the 34 yearloang regime of the CPI(M); Jayalalitha will romp in with a majority in Tamilnadu; Taurn Gogoiled Congress may hit a hat-trick in Assam by winning successively for the third time; and in Kerala there is a neck to neck competition, Achutanandan led LDF having a slight edge over the UDF. The real picture will be available on May 13, 2011 following the counting of the ballots. 

 

West Bengal: Mamata heading for landslide:

The CNN-IBN-The Week post-polls confirms what has been a foregone conclusion among the political watchers in Bengal and outside. The time for change - ’paribartan’ as the Trinamool slogan goes in Bengali - is here. May 13 is when the maverick Trinamool chief and Union Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee will stake a firm claim to the Writer’s Building in Kolkata.

 

Mamata Banerjee

As the figures show, the Left Front is not just going to be ousted, it is going to be virtually eliminated. The Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee-led Left Front government in Bengal had it coming. The ghosts of Nandigram, Singur and Lalgarh will continue to haunt the Indian Left for long. The flashpoints of a massive and violent struggle between the ‘people’s party’ and the people may prove to be the last nail in the coffins of the beleagured Communists if they do not get their act right. The seat projections are:TMC+Cong: 222-234. Left Front: 60-72. Behind these figures lies the hope for Bengal called Mamata Banerjee.

 

Tamil Nadu: Jaya heading for majority:

It was perceived as a battle between governance and corruption, with the ruling DMK representing both the qualities. According to the CNN-IBN-The Week post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), the backlash against corruption – both local and national, the latter represented by the DMK’s involvement in the 2G spectrum scam - is a nose ahead of the thumbs-up for governance.

 

J.Jayalalitha

Out of the 234 seats in the Tamil Nadu Assembly, the survey indicates that the J Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK a

Vlliance is likely to win between 120 and 132 seats, while M Karunanidhi’s DMK alliance will bag between 102 and 114. This means that AIADMK is heading for a majority.J Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK alliance is just ahead of M Karunanidhi’s DMK alliance.

 

Kerala surprise: LDF ahead of UDF by a nose:

According to a post-poll survey conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN and the Week there is no clear cut winner in Kerala, but the LDF has slight edge in terms of seats and vote share. Although neither of them is decisive enough for Kerala Chief Minister and Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader VS Achuthanandan to sit easy.

VS Achuthanandan

The LDF is likely to win between 69 and 77 seats with the UDF a close behind bagging 63-71 seats.

 

It was widely perceived that the ruling LDF has its back to the wall and is battling to buck the trend of alternate fronts coming to power once in every five years. But Achuthanandan sounded confident of winning the Assembly elections for the second term during the campaign. And he may well have reasons to smile.

 

Assam polls: Gogoi wins it for Congress:

What can the odds be for a ruling party in a state where the incumbent Chief Minister has already enjoyed two successful terms and where the Prime Minister of the country starts a vicious debate on political responsibility by not voting in his home constituency? 

Tarun Gogoi

 

Well, as the CNN-IBN-The Week post-poll survey shows, the ruling Congress has nothing to worry about in Assam where the Tarun Gogoi-led government is set to perform an impressive hat-trick on May 13 by winning anything between 64 and 72 seats in the 126-member Assam assembly, while the Prafulla Kumar Mahanta-led AGP may win 16-22 seats, followed by AUDF (11-17) and BJP (7-11).